Good reasons for retail sales to be strong for this year’s holiday shopping season

Dec 26, 2019 | News, Newsletter

Christine Chmura, Chmura Economics & Analytics

 

 

The holiday selling season is well underway.

It is an important time of year for retailers as holiday sales represents about 20% of the retail industry’s total sales.

Despite businesses having uncertainty over tariffs and seeing somewhat slower economic growth, consumer spending continues to expand at a 2.9% annualized pace in the third quarter, according to the latest gross domestic product report.

The strong consumer spending makes sense in light of the continued strong employment growth and increasing wages in October.

Personal income is up 4.9% over the 12 months ending in September, an increase of $880.5 billion.

American consumers like to spend, so much of that increase in income usually translates into purchases.

But will that result in more sales over the holidays than last year?

The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, predicts holiday sales will increase between 3.8% and 4.2%, which translates into $727.9 billion to $730.7 billion.

The forecast, which excludes sales at automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants, represents sales to be generated in November and December. Holiday sales saw an average increase of 3.7% during the last five years.

Global financial services firm Deloitte is looking for this year’s holiday sales to rise between 4.5% and 5% from November through January compared with the same period a year ago. They expect e-commerce sales to rise between 14% and 18%.

In its 34th annual survey of more than 4,000 respondents, Deloitte found that the average household expects to spend nearly $1,500 during the holidays. Three-fourths of the respondents say they are likely to spend the same or more than last year during the holiday season.

One concern for retailers this year is that there are six fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Dec. 25.

With such low unemployment rates in the nation and state, however, some retailers may be hard pressed to find the workers needed to serve all their customers.

Long lines and slow delivery times could put a damper on in-store sales while shifting more of the market share to e-commerce.

 

Christine Chmura is CEO and chief economist at Chmura Economics & Analytics. She can be reached at (804) 649-3640 or receive e-mail at chris@chmuraecon.com.

Roseville Officials Invest $7M to Revive Village, Offer New Business Opportunities

ROSEVILLE – Nearly a decade of grant-funded projects are transforming the village of Roseville.

Few will have the impact of a the new supermarket building. “It will be the centerpiece of a new downtown,” said Heidi Milner, the village’s fiscal officer.

It is nearing completion on part of the former Ungemach Pottery site on Potters Lane. Construction was funded by $750,000 in grants, the bulk of which was a USDA Rural Development Grant, and local investment. The new building features a grocery store, restaurant space and a walk-up window that could be used for ice cream orders. Garage doors on each side of the dining area will give it a pleasant summer atmosphere, as will a patio behind the building that opens facing the levy.

read more

Clinton County Port Authority Launches New Website

WILMINGTON, OH — The Clinton County Port Authority (CCPA) recently launched a new website, created by Golden Shovel Agency, to further strengthen its online presence and the economic growth of the community. The new site includes county-wide data, information specifically collected for site selectors, and local business resources to serve as a one-stop-shop for companies considering new investment or expansion in Clinton County.

read more